Timor-Leste’s foreign policy options within China’s Belt and Road 2.0: A small state perspective

Abstract

Within the intricate tapestry of global geopolitics, this paper critically explores Timor-Leste’s complex engagement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), particularly in the context of the evolving BRI 2.0. Despite extensive scholarly attention on the BRI’s broader implications, a significant gap remains in understanding how small and resource-constrained states like Timor-Leste strategically leverage such initiatives to their advantage. The paper addresses this gap whilst attempting to answer the following research question: “To what extent does Timor-Leste’s 2017 BRI membership maximise its small state condition?”. It analyses Sino-Timorese relations and BRI 2.0 engagements from 2017 to 2025 through a qualitative case study, employing document analysis and expert interviews, underpinned by small state theory. The findings reveal Timor-Leste’s pragmatic and strategic balancing act. Not only it optimises development opportunities, but also bolsters regional standing by meticulously weighing economic benefits against potential risks, ultimately enhancing its small state agency.