Robust control in water management

Abstract

Since surface water flows are often stochastic, there is a role for water reservoirs in protecting users against uncertainty. We assume uncertainty regarding the probability distribution for the stochastic variable. Thus the decision allows for a range of approximate models that could be true, and the problem can be solved using robust optimal control. This paper analyses the implications of a robust framework on resource management decisions, using the case of water as an illustration. Robust choices are compared with those of a benchmark stochastic model and the emergence of precautionary behaviour is discussed.