Direction and legitimation in system upscaling – planification of floating offshore wind

Abstract

This research investigates the process of construction of visions and plans to accelerate emerging low-carbon innovations. We adopt the technological innovation systems perspective to focus on system building processes, including the establishment of constituent elements and performance of key innovative activities. We analyze national roadmaps that have been developed for a technology that approaches upscaling and market take-off: offshore wind energy in deepwaters, i.e., more than 50 meters deep where there is high potential of resources but whose technology is still immature. The roadmaps analysis informs on how actors prepare the growth of the system and perform critical innovation activities. The analysis shows the importance of influence in the direction of search (guidance) and legitimation in the transition to growth. It points to different types of guidance depending on the technological and institutional context, in particular the tendency for a higher external openness with the approximation of technology deployment and with government involvement. A survey of actors’ opinion reveals that roadmaps tend to overinflate expectations and have a positive but limited impact on the technology development. Policy implications include recommendations for managing the process of formation of visions and legitimacy of emerging innovations. The analysis has implications for the operationalization of the functions guidance and legitimacy, as well as indicates limits to the current functional analysis and discusses future research directions. HIGHLIGHTS:

- We operationalize the study of collective strategy building (guidance) and social acceptance (legitimation) through roadmaps analysis; - We apply the framework to floating offshore wind technology which enters the up-scaling phase; - Guidance and legitimation are important conditions for technology upscaling and take-off; - Types of guidance towards external openness change with technological progress and government involvement; - Survey indicates that roadmaps have a positive but limited impact on technological dynamics.